North Africa Threat Assessment

The overrepresentation of North Africans in IS ranks and terrorist attacks in Europe and the continuing migrant crisis have put North Africa at the center of Europe's strategic concerns. The measures taken by Maghreb countries since 2014-15 mitigated the regional impact of increased terrorist activity in Libya (and Mali) while stemming the flow of returning foreign fighters. Libya has also seen gradual improvement on the terrorism situation since the retaking of Sirte from IS control.
 

Egypt is still struggling with insurgency in Sinai but has managed to contain most terrorism to that region. However, the cyclical history of terrorism in North Africa, ongoing conflict in Muslim countries, enabling socio-economic factors and the capacity of terrorist groups to adapt suggest that large scale terrorism will resume in the medium term in parts of North Africa. A better understanding of some outstanding features of terrorism-linked insecurity may help stakeholders in with business investments or aid commitments in the coming years particularly as concerns Libya and Southern Algeria. It can also help policy makers design more comprehensive strategies for their interests in that region...

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